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The Jets and 49ers will meet on Monday Night Football in what is perhaps the most anticipated matchup in Week 1. For all intents and purposes, Aaron Rodgers will be making his first start as a Jet against his boyhood team, the 49ers. Rodgers suffered a season-ending Achilles tendon injury on just his fourth offensive snap as a Jet in last year’s primetime season opener. While Jets fans might be a bit on edge come Monday night, if Rodgers can stay healthy, he’ll be a man on a mission this season.
San Francisco, fresh off of the Super Bowl loss, comes into the 2024 season with unfinished business. The 49ers open the year with the second shortest odds to win the Super Bowl at +600, trailing only the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs. On paper, their roster is arguably the most talented in the NFL and it is largely unchanged from last season’s Super Bowl run. They are poised for another double-digit win regular season.
The line at Michigan sports betting sites opened at 49ers -6 before dropping as low as -3.5 and coming back up to the current -4. We’ll dive deeper into the spread pick and provide our three best prop bets in this Jets v. 49ers betting preview.
Spread Pick: 49ers -4
Getting the 49ers inside of a touchdown at home feels generous. San Francisco enters Monday night having won 15 of their last 21 home games by double-digits. Aside from one change at right guard, Kyle Shanahan’s offense is untouched from last season. They welcome back Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Trent Williams, and George Kittle among others. That’s enough to put the fear of God into Jets head coach Robert Saleh, despite his defense ranking 3rd overall in the NFL in 2023.
On the other side of the ball, the 49ers defense can make life miserable for opposing quarterbacks. They feature a menacing pass rush anchored by Nick Bosa and Javon Hargrave. At 40 years old and coming off of an ankle surgery, Aaron Rodgers is not nearly as mobile as he once was. The last time he started and finished an NFL game was nearly two years ago for the Green Bay Packers. Facing this 49ers defense in San Francisco is hardly a smooth transition back to game action.
While Jets fans have spent another offseason building up the hype around their team, they will need to temper their expectations for Week 1. There are simply too many factors working in San Fran’s favor in this one. Take the 49ers -4 and don’t be surprised if it’s a blowout.
Best Props
Christian McCaffrey O/U 73.5 Rushing Yards: Over
McCaffrey rushed for more than 75 yards in fifteen out of twenty games played last season. This includes a 152-yard rushing performance in 2023’s season opener vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Jets have a stellar passing defense, but their 2023 rushing defense ranked just 25th out of 32 teams in the league. Expect a run-first offensive gameplan from Shanahan and the 49ers offense on Monday night, especially in the likely event that they are playing with a second half lead. You can pick up this prop right now at FanDuel sportsbook at odds of -113 at the time of writing.
Aaron Rodgers O/U 235.5 Passing Yards: Under
Even at 40 years old, Rodgers can potentially regain his MVP form this season. But he finds himself in a very tough spot in his first de facto start as a Jet. The Jets have a strong rushing attack and in a situation like this – opening the season on the opposite coast against a Super Bowl favorite – it would make sense to keep the ball on the ground with star running back Breece Hall. Moreover, Rodgers failed to throw for even 200 yards in both the 2022 and 2021 Packers season openers. Green Bay lost those games by a combined score of 61-10. There will be an adjustment period for Rodgers and the Jets offense. Stay patient, Jets fans, and no matter how much it may pain you, take the under on Rodgers passing yards for Week 1.
George Kittle O/U 3.5 Receptions: Under
Kittle is still one of the top tight ends in the NFL. But his pass catching production is not what it used to be. He is used primarily as a blocking tight end these days, a role in which he excels. He is still capable of the occasional offensive explosion, such as in Week 5 last season when he scored three touchdowns (albeit, on just three receptions). But last year, he went for over 3.5 receptions in just seven of twenty games played. There are a lot of mouths to feed on this 49er’s offense. Considering we expect a run-heavy game plan from Shanahan on Monday night, taking Kittle’s under on receptions is a smart play.
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