After an extensive stretch of conference bouts with varying levels of success, the Michigan softball team has found itself with an 11-11 conference record and the No. 8 seed in this week’s Big Ten Tournament in West Lafayette, Indiana. The Wolverines are headed to West Lafayette, where they will face No. 9 seed Wisconsin on Wednesday. The Daily’s softball beat (Niyatee Jain, Drew Lenard, Matthew Auchincloss and Vihaan Easwar) now predicts the outcome of the Big Ten Tournament.
How far does Michigan go?
Auchincloss: Semifinals
Michigan should beat Wisconsin as it already did earlier in the season. If the Badgers present any problem, that only bodes worse for the Wolverines in their second-round matchup against Oregon.
What gives me confidence is that Michigan had the Ducks on the ropes in Game 2 of their regular-season series before a late-game pitching change in the seventh inning cost the Wolverines their chance at victory. They were less than an inning away from victory against one of the best teams in the country. Add in a Michigan offense that generated well against Minnesota last weekend coupled with a little bit of tournament chaos, I think the Wolverines have a good chance to advance to the semifinals.
Easwar: Quarterfinals
This time last year, Michigan was on the ascent, winning 14 of its last 16 games entering the Big Ten Tournament. And it turned that momentum into a conference-tournament victory.
This year, the story is different. The Wolverines have been erratic all season, as the 11-11 conference record indicates, and have struggled mightily all year against high-quality opposition, going 0-12 against ranked opponents. Michigan has generally beaten the teams it should be beating — though there have been exceptions even to this rule, as losses to Michigan State and Minnesota demonstrate — and crumbled against the best teams in the conference and country.
As such, I expect Michigan to beat Wisconsin, a team which it made light work of early in the year, and then go out against Oregon in the very next round. The Ducks, ranked No. 7 in the country as per USA Softball, swept the Wolverines earlier in the season, and I doubt things will look different. Maybe they can take them into extra innings again, as they did in April, but an outright win? I doubt it.
Jain: Quarterfinals
It should be easy for Michigan to beat Wisconsin given the Wolverines’ performance against the Badgers in the regular season. However, when it comes to Oregon, Michigan needs to learn from its mistakes to pull off an upset. If this season has been any indicator, it’s that the Wolverines haven’t adjusted and their past errors will probably shine in the matchup. The game will be interesting no doubt, but I predict another Michigan lead lost, and another devastating loss that will end its season.
Lenard: Quarterfinals
I hate chalk. But sometimes there is a right and a wrong answer. In the case of the Michigan softball team’s Big Ten Tournament fate, there is only one logical outcome. The regular-conference season saw the Wolverines handle everyone they should have handled with ease — minus unfortunate hiccups that were Game 1s against Michigan State and Minnesota — and drop the ball in every matchup with a ranked opponent. Essentially, the bar of expectation has neither been lowered or raised since February.
What would normally give me a glimmer of hope is Michigan’s refusal to get blown out by higher-ranked opponents, losing six of its 12 matchups against ranked opponents by a single run. However, they have lost all 12 of these games, including a three-game series against No. 7 Oregon last month. By the end of the series, the Ducks’ batting order had senior right-hander Lauren Derkowski figured out, shattering her dreams of a successful relief effort in Game 2 and knocking home nine runs off of her in the very next outing. Mix that with the fact that Oregon is coming back with a vengeance after an upset at home at the hands of the Spartans, and you get a definitive win for the regular-season champs.
Who wins the Big Ten Tournament?
Auchincloss: Nebraska
I’ve just picked the Wolverines to upset Oregon, so I can’t go with the obvious pick of the Ducks. Instead, I’m going to go with Nebraska. UCLA has not been as dominant this season as many were predicting at the start. Meanwhile, Nebraska boasts national champion pitcher Jordy Bahl and is ranked second in the conference. I don’t love their strength of schedule for most of the season, but a second-round matchup against either Penn State or an Iowa team that the Cornhuskers run-ruled twice bodes well for them to at least make the semifinals. From there, I think they could easily defeat the Wolverines and move on to the final, where anything can happen. Nebraska for the win.
Easwar: Oregon
This conference has essentially been a two-horse race all season. Ohio State and Nebraska have been exciting, but UCLA and Oregon have been the creme de la creme, each with their eyes on a spot in the Women’s College World Series.
And the Bruins’ rotation might be just a bit deeper: the three-headed monster of Kaitlyn Terry, Taylor Tinsley and Addisen Fisher ranks among the conference’s most potent. But in Lyndsey Grein, the Ducks boast arguably the best pitcher in the conference, period — Grein touts a 1.82 ERA with a 26-2 record. And having the best player outright might be what makes the difference in a one-off final game.
Jain: Oregon
It really comes down to Oregon and UCLA. The West Coast powerhouses controlled the Big Ten this season with ease. The Ducks have a slight edge over the Bruins given Oregon’s 2-1 regular season victory over UCLA — including a Game 3 run-rule victory — which is why I lean more toward them. Tournaments always bring surprises, but it’s unlikely that Oregon’s dominant performance this season ends quickly in the tournament.
Lenard: Nebraska
Jordy Bahl is nasty. I was going to list a few of her greatest collegiate accolades, but there are simply too many to mention so I will link them here. The three-time national champion at Oklahoma made the decision to work a little closer to home this season, delivering on her promise to reassert the Cornhuskers at the top of the Big Ten. Posting a 22-5 season record with a 1.46 ERA that ranks 10th in the nation, Bahl will cut through either Penn State or Iowa with ease. After that it’s an uphill climb for the No. 3 seed, but one they are ready for. On top of Bahl’s top notch season, Nebraska ranks No. 5 in the nation in batting average and No. 12 in hits.
Similar to the Wolverines, the Cornhuskers have dropped all but two ranked matchups this year, placing a team that has the stats to be in the top ten at 19th in the nation. But it’s tournament season, exactly where Bahl feels at home. I told you I hate chalk, so allow me to pencil Nebraska into the championship slot, and Jordy Bahl into her second circle of the weekend: the Winner’s circle.
Bold predictions?
Auchincloss: Michigan loses in the semifinal, along with UCLA.
Easwar: Northwestern makes a run to the semifinals and takes Oregon to extra innings
Jain: UCLA semifinals exit
Lenard: Nebraska title run
Tournament MVP?
Auchincloss: Jordy Bahl
Easwar: Lyndsey Grein
Jain: Lyndsey Grein
Lenard: Jordy Bahl
