With the addition of West Coast powerhouses like Oregon and UCLA into conference play, Big Ten baseball has rarely been so competitive. Especially with a revamped tournament style that highly favors the top four seeds — the Ducks, the Bruins, Iowa and Southern California — Cinderella teams have no room for error in pool play. Ahead of the very first 12-team Big Ten Tournament, The Michigan Daily baseball beat — Xavier Choussat, Nate Schreck, Lyra Sharma and Grace Wright — predict the Big Ten’s biggest winners, losers and everything in between.
How far does Michigan go?
Choussat: Eliminated in pool play
With the revamped pool-play style, No. 7 seed Michigan needs to be perfect on both sides of the ball. Unfortunately for the Wolverines, they have not reached either of these marks, losing both of their most recent series. While Michigan is the favorite against Illinois, UCLA will prove to be a much tougher opponent and ultimately, too tough for the Wolverines.
Schreck: Eliminated in pool play
Dropping to the No. 7 seed put Michigan in a tough position. While UCLA is far and away the more formidable of the two opponents scheduled for the Wolverines, Illinois isn’t to be overlooked. With the need to go 2-0 in pool play, Michigan won’t be able to keep up with the Bruins after a scare from the Fighting Illini.
Sharma: Finals
Between Michigan and the Big Ten Tournament finals lies a significant challenge: UCLA. This newcomer to the Big Ten has been a thorn in the side of every team in the conference, crushing program after program on its crusade to the No. 2 spot in the conference, including delivering a devastating 22-5 loss to the Wolverines. But Michigan is a very different team than it was during that March matchup, and its skillful infield is a great matchup for the Bruins’ lack of power hitting. With an NCAA regional bid all but confirmed for UCLA, the Wolverines have all the drive and incentive to steal away that coveted semifinals spot. And with a victory against the Bruins, Michigan can ride that momentum against a slightly less formidable pool C opponent —likely Iowa —before falling in the finals.
Wright: Semifinals
Michigan’s road to the semifinals won’t be easy, but it’s certainly possible. The Wolverines have taken all season to develop a bullpen that can win conference weekend series — and this same rotation can likely take them to the semifinals. Having beat Illinois earlier this year, Michigan is comfortable with the Illini and will be able to utilize Game 1 of the tournament to get its feet underneath it. Game 2 against UCLA will be a much taller task, but not unsurmountable. With the staff the Wolverines have they will be able to put together a productive outing against the second-seeded team. But Michigan’s tournament run will be cut short at the semifinals simply because, while expanded, it lacks the necessary bullpen depth to make a deeper run in the tournament.
Who wins the Big Ten Tournament?
Choussat: Oregon
Being the predicted forerunner of the Big Ten, Oregon had a point to prove throughout the regular season. Taking down opponent after opponent, including its series versus the No. 2 seed UCLA and No. 3 seed Iowa, the Ducks are primed not only to win the Big Ten Tournament, but to make a run in the NCAA Tournament.
Schreck: Oregon
Oregon has shown itself to be the most dominant team in the Big Ten all season. With a sweep against Iowa coupled with the series win over UCLA, the Ducks have proven the ability to win in different ways over the top competitors that the conference has to offer.
Sharma: Oregon
Oregon has lived up to every expectation set upon it and more. The No. 4 team in the country and the No. 1 seed in the Big Ten has consistently outmatched its opponents, winning all of its series this season except, surprisingly, against the bottom of the table Ohio State. Butcruising off the momentum built in their sweep against Iowa, the Ducks have positioned themselves to have an easier run than most toward a Big Ten title.
Wright: Iowa
It’s really hard to beat a team four times. While Oregon has shown dominance in the Big Ten throughout the season, it’s unlikely that it will be able to overtake Iowa for a fourth time this season. Both the Hawkeyes and the Ducks will likely advance through the tournament smoothly as the top two seeded teams, and in postseason competition where Iowa is looking for revenge, it’s likely that it’ll find it in a tournament championship over Oregon.
Bold predictions for Michigan?
Choussat: Greg Pace Jr. goes off
No one has had hotter moments than Pace throughout Michiagn’s season. Going four-for-four with a homer against Michigan State, Pace has shown that if any of the Wolverines are going to take over a game, it’s going to be him.
Schreck: Game 1 against Illinois goes to extras
Going 2-1 in their series against the Illini earlier this season, the Wolverines don’t have a guaranteed win against the No. 12 seed. With tournament history between the two squads from last year, Game 1 will go into extra innings before Michigan clinches it via a walk off.
Sharma: Dylan Vigue will provide needed pitching stability
It’s been a tough season for sophomore right-hander Dylan Vigue. With lofty goals placed upon his performance, Vigue failed to live up to them in the first half of the season, eventually losing him his starting spot. But in his role as a reliever, Vigue has thrived, most recently exemplified by his multiple scoreless innings pitched against Indiana in Game 1. And that stability in clutch moments is exactly what Michigan will need as it advances in the tournament.
Wright: Will Rogers returns to two-way play
Senior right-hander Will Rogers hasn’t batted in a game for Michigan since its Game 1 loss to Iowa a month ago. Having stagnated slightly on the mound, it seems Rogers has taken time off offensively to focus on his command of the bump. But in a tournament where a fiery offense will be necessary for the Wolverines to make a run, Rogers’ power at the plate will likely be called upon.
Tournament MVP?
Choussat: Roch Cholowsky, UCLA
Second in slugging and fourth in batting average, UCLA’s best hitter is set up to go on a tear throughout both pool and bracket play. While he may not secure a win in this year’s Big Ten Tournament, he will be a key piece of the Bruins’ title run.
Schreck: Mason Neville, Oregon
Oregon’s best player all year hasn’t shown any signs of stopping soon. With the Ducks rolling their way to their first Big Ten Tournament championship, look for Neville to keep up his production from the regular season in postseason play.
Sharma: Grayson Grinsell, Oregon
Right-hander Grayson Grisnell has made dismantling potent offenses look simple. He has it all, the pitching arsenal, the confidence and the stamina that is desperately needed in tournament play. As Oregon makes its way toward Big Ten victory, Grinsell’s dominance on the mound will be a critical ingredient.
Wright: Gable Mitchell, Iowa
In order to take down Oregon’s dominant pitching staff, Iowa must run up the score early, and to do so it’ll look to infielder Gable Mitchell. Mitchell has provided power at the plate for the Hawkeyes all season and currently maintains a .327 batting average and a .419 on-base percentage. Sitting second in the lineup, it’ll be key for Mitchell to spark offensive momentum at the top of the order.
