{"id":5518,"date":"2026-06-17T01:49:04","date_gmt":"2026-06-17T01:49:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tmbglobal.news\/index.php\/2026\/06\/17\/umich-students-swung-hard-to-the-right-in-2024-a-reversal-now-seems-likely\/"},"modified":"2026-06-17T01:49:10","modified_gmt":"2026-06-17T01:49:10","slug":"umich-students-swung-hard-to-the-right-in-2024-a-reversal-now-seems-likely","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tmbglobal.news\/index.php\/2026\/06\/17\/umich-students-swung-hard-to-the-right-in-2024-a-reversal-now-seems-likely\/","title":{"rendered":"UMich students swung hard to the right in 2024. A reversal now seems likely."},"content":{"rendered":"<p><\/p>\n<div>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Following President Donald Trump\u2019s victory in 2024, it became clear that certain <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pewresearch.org\/politics\/2025\/06\/26\/voting-patterns-in-the-2024-election\/\">voting groups<\/a> who had reliably voted Democratic for decades had gone against the party. These groups included Asian voters, Hispanic voters and notably, college-age voters. In fact, Kamala Harris <a href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2024\/11\/07\/g-s1-33331\/unpacking-the-2024-youth-vote-heres-what-we-know-so-far\">received<\/a> only 54% of Generation Z votes, compared to the more than 60% obtained by Democratic candidates since 2008. In Michigan, the drop-off was even more stark: While Joe Biden <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/elections\/interactive\/2020\/exit-polls\/michigan-exit-polls\/\" id=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/elections\/interactive\/2020\/exit-polls\/michigan-exit-polls\/\">received<\/a> 61% of the youth vote in 2020, Kamala Harris only received 47%, according to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/elections\/interactive\/2024\/michigan-exit-polls\/\">Michigan exit polls<\/a>. <\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This decline in Democratic support was driven partly by young men, who were swayed by Trump\u2019s campaign on <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/trump-young-men-voters-election-latinos-democrats-ff30e38698a41132cf90345fffabe579\" id=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/trump-young-men-voters-election-latinos-democrats-ff30e38698a41132cf90345fffabe579\">masculine appeals<\/a>, alongside the use of nontraditional media such as livestreams and podcasts. Conservative activist groups such as Turning Point USA also focused on outreach at universities like the University of Michigan, which helped drive support for Trump.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Given U-M students\u2019 long history of support for <a href=\"https:\/\/alumni.umich.edu\/michigan-alum\/the-times-they-were-a-changin\/\">left-leaning causes<\/a>, it was notable that this shift also occurred on campus. In Ann Arbor, Democratic support only <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washtenaw.org\/314\/Election-Results\">dropped<\/a> from 87% to 85%, a small rightward shift. However, when zooming in on the neighborhood level, the sharp rightward trend among college voters becomes apparent.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-flourish wp-block-embed-flourish wp-embed-aspect-1-1 wp-has-aspect-ratio\">\n<p>\n<iframe class=\"wp-embedded-content perfmatters-lazy\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" title=\"Interactive or visual content\" data-secret=\"CuAG45vyVS\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" height=\"575\" width=\"700\" data-src=\"https:\/\/flo.uri.sh\/visualisation\/28340636\/embed#?secret=CuAG45vyVS\"><\/iframe>\n<\/p>\n<\/figure>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Neighborhoods composed<strong> <\/strong>mostly of student housing swung upwards of 21 percentage points to the right. The largest swing in Ann Arbor occurred in the South Campus neighborhood, which surrounds the Ross School of Business. This neighborhood includes many fraternities, the East Quad Residence Hall and various student apartments and homes. Joe Biden received 88% of the vote here in 2020, while Kamala Harris received only 77%, a poor showing in a staunchly liberal city. Other neighborhoods with large rightward swings include Hoover, Markley-West Geddes and the area surrounding South Quad Residence Hall, which are all student-centric. Notably, neighborhoods outside campus experienced much smaller swings, even shifts to the left, especially on the West Side where the median age is much higher. This shift explains why Ann Arbor as a whole was still only slightly less Democratic than in 2020, as the shifts outside campus counteracted the shifts within.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"scaip scaip-1    \">\n\t\t<\/aside>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Republicans celebrated such gains in student voting in 2024, but given this significant deviation from the norm, it is reasonable to question whether this is a new trend or just an anomaly. Since the start of Trump\u2019s presidency, approval ratings for his administration have steadily <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolling.com\/polls\/approval\/donald-trump\/approval-rating\">decreased<\/a>. Filtering responses to those aged 18-29, an even more extreme pattern emerges.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-flourish wp-block-embed-flourish wp-embed-aspect-1-1 wp-has-aspect-ratio\">\n<p>\n<iframe class=\"wp-embedded-content perfmatters-lazy\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" title=\"Interactive or visual content\" data-secret=\"W3zFkcrNrn\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" height=\"575\" width=\"700\" data-src=\"https:\/\/flo.uri.sh\/visualisation\/28995545\/embed#?secret=W3zFkcrNrn\"><\/iframe>\n<\/p>\n<\/figure>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At the very beginning of Trump\u2019s term, young Americans were equally split between approval and disapproval. However, his disapproval rating quickly began to rise, hovering near 60% since January 2026. His approval rating among Gen Z has fallen to about 35%, lower than the overall average of <a href=\"https:\/\/emersoncollegepolling.com\/april-2026-national-poll\/\">about 40%<\/a>. Neutral ratings of the Trump administration have dramatically decreased, with most now disapproving.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">While polling is an indicator of dissatisfaction with the current presidency, it does not always <a href=\"https:\/\/time.com\/7021454\/history-political-poll-error\/\">translate<\/a> directly into election results. No partisan elections have occurred in Ann Arbor since 2024, but they have occurred in other college communities, notably in Virginia. The state\u2019s 2025 gubernatorial election elected Abigail Spanberger, a Democrat, as Virginia\u2019s next governor. She won the <a href=\"https:\/\/enr.elections.virginia.gov\/results\/public\/virginia\/elections\/2025-November-General\">election<\/a> by 15.4 percentage points, more than the 5.8-point margin Kamala Harris won the state with. On college campuses, the leftward swing is even greater.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-flourish wp-block-embed-flourish wp-embed-aspect-1-1 wp-has-aspect-ratio\">\n<p>\n<iframe class=\"wp-embedded-content perfmatters-lazy\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" title=\"Interactive or visual content\" data-secret=\"exIavPs8os\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" height=\"575\" width=\"700\" data-src=\"https:\/\/flo.uri.sh\/visualisation\/28778182\/embed#?secret=exIavPs8os\"><\/iframe>\n<\/p>\n<\/figure>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Similar to the University, Virginia college students vote overwhelmingly Democratic. Further, in 2024, the share of Democratic votes in these areas decreased significantly more than statewide, just as it had on the U-M campus. Yet in only one year, these rightward swings were entirely reversed \u2014 and then some.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Overall, the percentage of votes Harris received in all Virginia college communities was 68%, but Spanberger received 78%. Because Republican support fell by a similar amount, the Democratic margin increased by 20 percentage points. The largest swing occurred among voters at James Madison University, of whom only 60% voted for Harris, while a whopping 75% voted for Spanberger \u2014\u00a0a 30-point shift to the left. Compared to the rest of the state, which only saw Spanberger get 57% of the vote \u2014 still a modest increase from Harris\u2019s 52% \u2014 the swing back to the left on college campuses was much larger.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"scaip scaip-2    \">\n\t\t<\/aside>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This rapid reversal raises an important question: What caused college voters to move back toward Democrats so quickly? While Michigan and Virginia are different states, both contain large university populations that tend to prioritize <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/10\/31\/learning\/the-issues-that-matter-most-to-teenagers-in-this-election.html\">certain issues<\/a> such as educational costs, healthcare and housing. Policies and proposals associated with the Trump administration have directly impacted these concerns, such as <a href=\"https:\/\/abcnews.com\/Politics\/department-education-cuts-expected-huge-impacts-teachers\/story?id=119801563\">cuts<\/a> to the Department of Education and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2025\/08\/12\/politics\/aca-obamacare-insurance-trump-republicans\">attempts<\/a> to roll back Obamacare. These actions may explain why some young voters who shifted right in 2024 may be reconsidering that choice. The priorities of young voters in Michigan provide further insight into why a similar political reversal could happen at the University.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-flourish wp-block-embed-flourish wp-embed-aspect-1-1 wp-has-aspect-ratio\">\n<p>\n<iframe class=\"wp-embedded-content perfmatters-lazy\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" title=\"Interactive or visual content\" data-secret=\"06ev5kKfVP\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" height=\"575\" width=\"700\" data-src=\"https:\/\/flo.uri.sh\/visualisation\/29003575\/embed#?secret=06ev5kKfVP\"><\/iframe>\n<\/p>\n<\/figure>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Among young voters, 34% believe the economy to be the most important Michigan issue. However, this is moderately less than the 40% selecting the economy statewide. Issues more frequently deemed important by young voters include healthcare, education, crime, housing affordability and abortion access. In fact, 27% of young voters identified education or housing affordability as their top issue, compared with just 15% of voters overall.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On most issues, the Trump administration is viewed as having <a href=\"https:\/\/www.msn.com\/en-us\/news\/politics\/fewer-americans-think-trump-keeps-his-promise-in-approval-rating-poll\/ar-AA22Bre0\">failed<\/a> to deliver on promises made during the 2024 campaign. Housing reform, one of Trump\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2024\/11\/11\/what-trumps-presidency-could-mean-for-the-housing-market-in-the-us.html?msockid=26b5ae7a95a763a11037b95a9421621b\">key<\/a> campaign promises, has been overlooked in favor of issues like the war in Iran. Homes are scarcer and more <a href=\"https:\/\/www.usatoday.com\/story\/news\/politics\/2026\/01\/18\/trump-economic-promises-inflation-energy-housing\/88084918007\/\">expensive<\/a> than ever before. Approval ratings for the economy under Trump have reached <a href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/homenews\/campaign\/5759759-young-voters-trump-approval-rating-economy\/\">lows<\/a> of 25% among those under 30. These are all possible reasons why Republicans have begun to take a hit electorally, especially in college communities.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It is clear that the Republican brand has soured for many. While some U-M students took a chance on Trump, all of these signs indicate a reversal of favor for his party. Democrats have become the party of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/04\/01\/upshot\/special-elections-democrats-voting.html\">high turnout<\/a>, and with young voters expressing low approval of the Trump administration, this rapid decline could have serious implications.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In a swing state like Michigan, high disapproval of Republicans among the youth could swing a close vote in favor of the Democrats. With a key Senate race, an open governorship and the entire state legislature <a href=\"https:\/\/bridgemi.com\/michigan-government\/michigan-faces-a-huge-election-year-these-are-the-2026-races-to-watch\/\">on the ballot this November<\/a>, there could be major implications for the state. With swings similar to what was seen in Virginia last year, Democrats may be on course for a sweep of both federal and statewide offices. In Michigan, the extent of the shift could surpass even the blue wave of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.macombdaily.com\/2022\/11\/09\/blue-wave-washes-over-michigan-as-dems-take-control-of-lansing\/\">2022<\/a>. Nonetheless, nothing will be certain until the polls close on November 3rd.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"scaip scaip-3    \">\n\t\t<\/aside>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Summer Data Editor Zachary Geyer can be reached at <a href=\"https:\/\/www.michigandaily.com\/web\/data\/umich-students-swung-hard-to-the-right-in-2024-a-reversal-now-seems-likely\/mailto:zgeyer@umich.edu\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">zgeyer@umich.edu<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n<aside>\n\t\t<\/aside>\n<p><h3 class=\"jp-relatedposts-headline\"><em>Related articles<\/em><\/h3>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Following President Donald Trump\u2019s victory in 2024, it became clear that certain voting groups who had reliably voted Democratic for decades had gone against the party. These groups included Asian voters, Hispanic voters and notably, college-age voters. In fact, Kamala Harris received only 54% of Generation Z votes, compared to the more than 60% obtained [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5519,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[1634,4931,505,4930,341],"class_list":["post-5518","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-news","tag-hard","tag-reversal","tag-students","tag-swung","tag-umich"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/tmbglobal.news\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5518","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/tmbglobal.news\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/tmbglobal.news\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tmbglobal.news\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tmbglobal.news\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5518"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/tmbglobal.news\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5518\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5520,"href":"https:\/\/tmbglobal.news\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5518\/revisions\/5520"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tmbglobal.news\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5519"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/tmbglobal.news\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5518"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tmbglobal.news\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5518"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tmbglobal.news\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5518"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}