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After waltzing through Week 1, the Michigan Wolverines face one of their toughest tests of the season Saturday against the Texas Longhorns in a noon ET kickoff on FOX.
The 10th-ranked Wolverines are consensus 7.5-point underdogs across Michigan betting sites against the Longhorns, who enter this weekend ranked third nationally after a statement win in their opener.
Can Michigan pull off the upset at home, or will Texas prove to be “back” with a win at the Big House?
Tough task for Michigan vs. Texas
Last week, we were spot-on with our Michigan vs. Fresno State preview by trusting the Wolverines to hold the Bulldogs below 12.5 points.
It was a fairly predictable result, as Michigan’s defense allowed just 10 points and even added six points of its own with a pick-six from star corner Will Johnson.
There was only one major surprise: former walk-on Davis Warren started at quarterback.
Clearly, the coaching staff was concerned with presumptive starter Alex Orji’s development as a passer over the summer, because Warren showed very little on Saturday (118 yards, TD, INT) against an inexperienced Fresno State defense.
Meanwhile, Texas put together a nearly flawless effort in a 52-0 win over Colorado State that caught the attention of the best Michigan sportsbooks and bettors alike.
The Longhorns boasted nearly as many touchdowns (seven) as incomplete passes (eight), but their defense was just as impressive, limiting the Rams to 3.4 yards per play in Texas’ first shutout win since 2022.
Michigan vs. Texas odds
Texas was favored by 3.5 points on the point spread betting line all summer, and it was laying 6.5 points earlier this week before persistent action on the Longhorns pushed this line over a touchdown.
That feels like a slight overreaction to one week, but it’s also clear that bettors don’t trust Michigan’s offense after Week 1. Frankly, neither do I.
The Wolverines went 4-for-11 on third down and had fewer than 125 passing yards for just the fifth time in their last 80 games dating back to 2017.
Warren didn’t complete a pass over 20 yards against Fresno State, and Donovan Edwards’ longest carry was seven yards.
Michigan’s team total is dealing as high as 16.5 points at FanDuel Sportsbook with the Under betting line priced at -102.
Can the Wolverines defense contain Ewers?
While Michigan’s offense didn’t exactly inspire confidence in Week 1, its defense was as advertised in its first game under new coordinator Wink Martindale.
Johnson and the Wolverines’ secondary baited Mikey Keene – one of the best passers in the Group of Five – into two interceptions, and Michigan’s dominant front limited dynamic tailback Malik Sherrod to 24 yards on 14 carries.
Clearly, Texas is a different beast entirely, though the Longhorns’ running back room is still relatively unproven after losing CJ Baxter (knee) and Christian Clark (Achilles) to preseason injuries.
If Michigan can force Texas to be one-dimensional, I like the Wolverines’ chances to coax quarterback Quinn Ewers into ill-advised throws before a raucous crowd at the Big House – one of the toughest road environments in our Big Ten stadium rankings.
Michigan vs. Texas betting
Texas’ team total is trading as high as 25.5 at FanDuel with the Under dealing at -111 odds.
That may be tough to stomach for some after that 52-piece last week. If you’re in that camp, I also love Ewers’ chances to throw an interception at +106 odds via Caesars Sportsbook.
The junior passer threw a comically bad interception last week against Colorado State, and he was picked off in five of his final eight starts to end last season.
Michigan vs. Texas prediction
I have more confidence in Texas to win Saturday’s top 10 showdown, but there’s no value in the moneyline betting line after bettors pounced on it after Week 1.
Instead, I’m targeting Under 43.5 at BetMGM Sportsbook, which is one point higher than most shops and also features the best odds at -110.
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