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Depleted health is at the forefront when two AFC South residents, the Indianapolis Colts (2-3) and Tennessee Titans (1-3), meet for the first time in 2024. The notable injuries on both squads could lend a tipping hand in how to play the total.
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Quarterbacks down?
When we last saw the Titans, they were having their way with the Miami Dolphins on Monday Night Football two weeks ago, en route to the club’s first win of the year.
In the process, though, Tennessee lost starting quarterback Will Levis — who has been receiving plenty of criticism already in just his sophomore campaign — to a shoulder issue midway through the game.
After Mason Rudolph came in and victoriously guided the Titans the rest of the way, the thought was that Levis might miss additional time when they return from the bye week. However, with three full practices under his belt, Levis is starting.
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Similar deal in Indy
The Colts are also in an interesting spot with their own second-year signal-caller.
Anthony Richardson departed the team’s Week 4 game early two weeks ago and missed last Sunday’s contest as well. This paved the way for the ageless Joe Flacco to step in under center, and not only did the reigning Comeback Player of the Year go 2-0, he performed fairly well in addition
Well, the QB1 situation is still unknown, as Richardson is being considered a game-time decision. Obviously, if he cannot play, Flacco would get the starting nod again.
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Top RB, WR also hobbled
Making matters even more difficult for the Indianapolis offense, Jonathan Taylor has been ruled out for the second consecutive week with an ankle ailment. Trey Sermon and Tyler Goodson will split the work in his stead, and after combining for 64 yards on 15 carries a week ago, that doesn’t seem like a halfback duo to be afraid of.
Not only that, Colts’ No. 1 wide-out Michael Pittman Jr. is a game-time decision while dealing with injuries to his back and toe. The receiving corps would be glaringly thin with Pittman Jr. absent.
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Remember the Titans’ D
A staple of the Titans the last handful of years when Mike Vrabel ran the show was a really stingy defense and that has continued with first-year head coach Brian Callahan. In fact, they’re allowing the fewest total yards per game in the NFL
Tennessee has been especially good against the pass, limiting opposing quarterbacks to just five yards per attempt. That mark ranks them second.
As a bonus, the Titans are getting back defensive leader Jeffery Simmons after the six-year veteran was inactive in the team’s last game with an elbow injury.
With the Colts far from 100 percent on offense, it’s hard to envision them putting a real crooked number on the scoreboard.
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What about Indy’s D?
On the opposite end of the spectrum, the Colts are yielding more total yards than anyone in the league. They’re also without one of their defensive stalwarts, DeForest Buckner, who is on injured reserve, and another one could be out as Kenny Moore is questionable with a hip ailment. Luckily, he just logged a full practice on Friday.
Despite the defense’s poor rankings, they’re definitely better than that and have a matchup on tap that can norm things out. The Titans offense plates the third-fewest total yards per game — ahead of only the Patriots and Browns.
Capitalizing on injury
If Levis is limited, that could be a huge assist to Indy’s efforts of limiting this offense. The best weapon Levis has is his strong arm, but since he’s dealing with an injury to his throwing shoulder, you have to believe that will hamper the deep ball.
Likewise, the Titans can also take advantage of Richardson if he’s not at full strength. He thrives with his feet, but if he has an oblique issue to contend with, that would absolutely affect his ability to run and possibly his effectiveness throwing.
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Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans Prediction
Defense will be the name of the game in this one, resulting in a lower-scoring pace.
Most places have this total at 43 but I’m electing to get my wager on BetRivers, where it’s 43.5 and I can buy a half point to 44. That protects us if there’s a 27-17 score and I don’t see it going beyond that.
Pick: UNDER 44 (-124)
2024 NFL Over/Under Betting Record*: 4-1, +5.8 units
Last Week’s Result: Ravens-Bengals Over 48 (WIN)
*Each bet graded as if it were to win two units
Odds as of 10/10
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