What to watch for: Michigan State

Coming off a two-game skid, the Michigan football team is approaching ‘State Championship’ week with a renewed vigor. Not only is it a chance for the Wolverines to reset and return to the win column, it’s a chance for them to do that while beating their in-state rivals and keeping the Paul Bunyan Trophy in Ann Arbor for another year.

At the beginning of the season, Michigan would’ve been a heavy favorite to beat Michigan State, but that’s not the case anymore. Both programs enter the contest with a 4-3 record, and while the Wolverines have regressed since last year, the Spartans have improved.

Michigan State is coming off a convincing 32-20 win over Iowa in which it gained 468 total yards with a fairly even split through the air and on the ground. On the other side, Michigan’s offense outgained Illinois in total yards 322-to-267 last week, yet the Wolverines still lost 21-7.

This year’s rendition of the rivalry is sure to look different than last year considering the state of the two programs entering the matchup. To help you decipher the game, here’s what to watch for:

Who is Michigan’s quarterback?

Seven games into the season, that may seem like a silly question to ask. But that’s just how this season has gone for the Wolverines. Senior Davis Warren, junior Alex Orji and graduate Jack Tuttle have each taken turns under center, and each has brought more questions than answers with their performances.

Warren and Tuttle showed significant turnover problems, and Orji was only better in that regard because he simply didn’t throw the ball that much. Michigan coach Sherrone Moore reopened the competition this week, hoping to land on the player who could best take care of the ball, though he seemed inclined to stick with Tuttle as his starter.

In an additional attempt to bolster a struggling quarterback room, the Wolverines experimented with having offensive coordinator Kirk Campbell on the sidelines against the Fighting Illini. Clearly, the change didn’t have an immediate effect on the offense, but Moore plans to continue the experiment against the Spartans.

“I think it was good, especially for the quarterbacks, seeing him face to face and being on the field,” Moore said Monday. “From my own experience as a play caller, being on the field, it really helped me. But we’ll just go through the week and figure out what we think is best for the crew.”

Michigan had plenty to figure out in practice this week, from where Campbell will call plays to who will be receiving them. With Tuttle the likely starter, the Wolverines will hope he can drive the offense. If he can’t, don’t be surprised if the quarterback competition from practice extends onto the field this week.

Who will win the turnover battle?

Now that we’ve established Michigan has a turnover problem, it’s important to note that Michigan State does too. Both teams have thrown nine interceptions and lost six fumbles this season — an uncannily equal statline that highlights the shared struggle of both offenses.

“As far as not taking care of the football, you’d say (the offenses are similar),” Moore said. “But I just want us to be good. I want us to take care of the football ourselves, and not gonna worry about what they’re doing. We’re gonna try to take the football away from them, for sure, but for us, we gotta do everything we can to keep it.”

Moore primarily focusing on his offense keeping the ball is for good reason. That’s the group that’s struggled in the turnover game, whereas the Wolverines’ defense has been solid. Michigan has nabbed six interceptions and recovered two fumbles this season, and the Spartans might give it the opportunity to add to those numbers.

But if the Wolverines’ offense can’t hold onto the ball itself, the defense’s effectiveness would be severely diminished. Against Illinois, that was Michigan’s problem — its defense held down the fort, but its offense couldn’t capitalize. 

The turnover battle is sure to be at the forefront of Saturday’s contest, and whichever offense can best overcome its weakness is likely to have the leg up.

Can the Wolverines keep Aidan Chiles in the pocket?

Unlike Michigan, which hasn’t had a clear-cut starting quarterback all season, Michigan State quarterback Aidan Chiles has steadily grown into his role. He’s a decent passer, averaging 210 yards per game, but he’s dangerous when he gets outside the pocket.

Chiles extends plays with his legs and regularly runs the ball himself, rushing for 133 net yards and three touchdowns. However, as good as he is at scrambling, he’s vulnerable to sacks. He’s lost 97 yards on 16 sacks, bringing his average yards per rush down to 3.

For the Wolverines’ defense, the key to getting off the field quickly is keeping Chiles in the pocket. And to do that, their run defense has to be on point.

“You got to do a great job with the rush lanes, and that’s something we’re going to stress and talk about,” Moore said. “ … Whether it’s a four-man rush or a five-man rush, of where you’re at in the pocket, keeping him compressed. Because if he gets out, he can make things happen with his feet and he can make things happen with his arm. So we got to do things there and then mix up different looks for him.”

As demonstrated by his nine interceptions, Chiles isn’t immune to pressure. So if Michigan’s defense can keep him in the pocket and force him to make quick decisions, it stands a chance to beat him. But if Chiles can escape, he has the chance to run all over the Wolverines.

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With Michigan’s never-ending quarterback competition and turnover struggles proving to be the defining characteristics of its season so far, those story lines aren’t going anywhere anytime soon. The fact that the Spartans share those turnover issues make that an intriguing battle to watch for. And if the Wolverines can’t get Chiles to give them the ball, their next best bet is to pressure him by keeping him in the pocket. Quarterbacks and turnovers are likely to decide the game, so be sure to watch for them.

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