What to watch for: Oregon

Two weeks ago, immediately following the Michigan football team’s gutting loss against Illinois, a frustrated Colston Loveland sat at the podium and laid out the Wolverines’ plans for the rest of the season quite bluntly. 

“Now, let’s just start wrecking people’s seasons,” the junior tight end said.

And if there ever was an opponent ripe for a defining loss, it’s No. 1 Oregon. 

There are many ways you could compare the two opponents. The Ducks have a quarterback named in lists of Heisman contenders, the Wolverines have had to cycle through three. Oregon appears headed for the College Football Playoff and Michigan is essentially already out of contention. And of course, the Wolverines are rebuilding while for Oregon, this is the year. 

However, that opens the door for Michigan to act as spoilers. The Wolverines haven’t played a No. 1 ranked opponent since 2006, and they haven’t beat one since the Reagan administration. But if Michigan truly plans to wreck a season on Saturday, you might want to know what’ll allow that to happen. In other words: You might want to know what to watch for.

Does the Orji-Warren dynamic continue to work?

Last week, for really the first time all season, the Wolverines found offensive success with the tandem of junior quarterback Alex Orji and senior quarterback Davis Warren splitting snaps. 

With Warren as the starter and marquee passer, and Orji subbing in once or twice a drive to operate a read-option scheme, the two complimented each other well. While in the past Orji’s runs were mostly ineffective and Warren’s arm struggled to generate any offensive momentum, the two combined to put together four scoring drives, reviving Michigan’s offense and resulting in a seven-point victory.

Orji made headway on the ground, leading all Wolverines in rushing with 64 yards and adding a touchdown on the ground. Warren operated an efficient passing attack with 123 yards — Michigan’s third most this season, believe it or not — and a touchdown through the air to boot. But while it worked last Saturday, the Warren-Orji dynamic was far less effective in the first three games of this season. That was especially true against Texas — the Wolverines’ toughest opponent of the year until now. 

With the Ducks presenting another uniquely difficult challenge, Warren and Orji are going to be thrown back into the fire. If their dynamic pays off, with Warren acting as an effective game manager and Orji’s designed rushes paying dividends, Michigan will be competitive. 

However, if Warren’s passing attack can’t parse the Ducks’ defense and if Orji’s runs start to look more like the 3-yard scrambles of the early part of the season, the Wolverines may be in for trouble. 

Can Michigan limit the turnovers?

All season long, Michigan has been plagued by turnovers. 

Turnovers were the main reason why Warren got benched in Week 3, turnovers had graduate quarterback Jack Tuttle on the hot seat before his retirement and the Wolverines’ nine thrown interceptions and six fumbles have cost them multiple games. 

Last week however, Michigan finally had its first completely clean game. In that victory over the Spartans, the Wolverines’ ball security was key in holding onto what turned out to be a narrow victory. This week, if Michigan has any hopes of eking out an upset, that will need to be a trend. Giving Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel and the dynamic offense that he operates extra opportunities on the field is not a recipe for success.  

The Ducks’ defense is stout, and has forced 11 turnovers on the season. So it’s likely that Oregon will get at least one takeaway, but the key for Michigan will be holding the Ducks to that. 

The Wolverines will have several chances with the ball on Saturday, and if they can keep the ball in their hands and out of the Ducks’, they’ll have a chance. But if their turnover woes flare up once again, it could be a long day.

Can Michigan’s secondary contain Dillon Gabriel, especially if Will Johnson is out?

Through eight games on the season, Dillon Gabriel hasn’t just managed Oregon’s offense — he’s piloted it at full throttle.

With 2,371 passing yards on the season, the eighth-most passing yards in the country, Gabriel moves his offense quickly, and is ideal for stretching the field on explosive plays. Unfortunately for the Wolverines, explosive passing plays have been their kryptonite all year. Against Washington, Michigan allowed nine passing completions of 15-plus yards and on the season, it ranks 86th in passing yards allowed. 

With Gabriel’s explosive arm and the Wolverines’ on-and-off secondary, there appears to be a mismatch. And that mismatch could be exacerbated if junior Will Johnson, Michigan’s top-flight cornerback, is sidelined for another week with an injury. Without Johnson, the Wolverines would be lacking a crucial piece of their secondary at the worst possible time.

Watch for Johnson’s pre game status, watch how Gabriel succeeds or struggles against the secondary and watch for Oregon to take long shots against a defense that might allow them. 

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Overall, Michigan comes into the weekend as heavy underdogs to the No. 1 ranked Ducks. Oregon’s passing offense outmatches the Wolverines’ secondary on paper. Its defense is in position to take advantage of a turnover riddled Michigan offense, and the Wolverines haven’t beat the nation’s No. 1 since 1984. 

But as Colston Loveland said, Michigan is in it to “wreck seasons,” and this week, they’ll have their first chance to do just that.

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