From getting swept by Nebraska to sweeping Michigan State, the Michigan softball team has gone through its ups and downs en route to the Big Ten Tournament in College Park, Maryland. With a conference record of 11-13, the Wolverines have clinched the No. 9 seed and will face No. 8 Ohio State on Wednesday. Now, the Daily’s softball beat (Lea Bodiford, Danny Huang, Suraj Kodali, and Hadley Zann) predicts the Big Ten Tournament.
How far does Michigan go?
Bodiford: Quarterfinals
Ohio State has posed a challenge for Michigan before, and it is likely that they will pose a challenge again. When the Wolverines faced the Buckeyes in late April, they claimed the series. They won Game 1, 10-8, due to a walk-off three run home run from powerful hitter Jenissa Conway and trounced the Buckeyes in a run-rule game 2, 11-1. Ohio State would go on to take the final game of the series 13-2, relying on seven homers to clinch the run-rule. Throughout the season, the Buckeyes’ offense has been strong, notching the second-most homers in the Big Ten with 119. But despite this, Ohio State still falls below Michigan in Big Ten ranking in terms of offensive power, slotting into the ninth spot below the Wolverines who land the seventh. Additionally, the Buckeyes are prone to handing out defensive errors, totaling 71 on the season, practically double the 38 that Michigan has committed. Ohio State’s errors allowed the Wolverines to take the early lead in Game 2, handing out several free bases, and that is a theme that I expect to prevail, at least in part,in the tournament matchup. While the Buckeyes have an inconsistent pitching staff similar to Michigan, they have only one pitcher, Jenna Molk, who has an ERA below 6.00. Despite the Wolverine’s pitching struggles, they possess more than one pitcher who has succeeded at one time or another in Big Ten play. This game is sure to be a back-and-forth offensive showcase, but ultimately I pick Michigan to prevail.
However, while I believe the Wolverines will overtake Ohio State, it is very unlikely they will make it out of the quarterfinals. After the Buckeyes, Michigan would face Nebraska, a team characterized by its premier pitching and explosive offense, ranked second in the nation. It is unlikely that the Wolverines could keep up with a team that is so strong on both fronts, especially with an inconsistent pitching staff.
Huang: Quarterfinals
Michigan will have its work cut out for it in the first round against Ohio State. The Wolverines just narrowly escaped the regular season series against the Buckeyes due to late heroics from Jenissa Conway in Game 1, but Ohio State is coming into the matchup off a stunning series win against Washington. The Buckeyes wield a prolific extra-base hitting offense, crushing 119 home runs in the regular season. But even though Ohio State has the tools to dispatch Michigan, the Wolverines are also finding their footing just in time for the tournament. Michigan is coming off its first series sweep against Michigan State, relying on contributors like Kiley Carr, Lilly Vallimont and Janelle Ilacqua — proving that the Wolverines do not need to rely on their usual best hitters. Leaning on an offense that has thrived against inconsistent pitching staffs, I expect Michigan to prevail in a slugfest.
Unfortunately for the Wolverines, that’s where their run stops. Facing No. 2 ranked Nebraska, Michigan is outclassed and outmatched. Getting swept by the Cornhuskers earlier in the season, the Wolverines’ pitching issues have only become more dire. With its ongoing defensive issues coupled with a lack of talent to compete with one of the nation’s best, I don’t believe Michigan will be able to pull off the upset win against Nebraska.
Kodali: First Round
This rivalry matchup between Michigan and Ohio State feels like a coin flip. The Wolverines narrowly came out on top in a three game homestand, but the two teams are heading in different directions at the moment. The Buckeyes are coming off a statement series victory against a Washington team that Michigan was swept by earlier in the season. The Wolverines were able to claim their first Big Ten series sweep against bottom-ranked Michigan State but have faltered against better opponents in Wisconsin and Indiana. On top of that, Ohio State is ranked third in OPS among Big Ten teams, six spots higher than Michigan. However, the Wolverines best the Buckeyes in total runs scored by one run.
It will be close — the firepower on both sides should be enough to concern struggling pitching staffs. But I believe Ohio State’s power may be enough to barely triumph over Michigan. Expect a shootout.
Zann: Quarterfinals
This definitely isn’t a sure pick. Michigan played Ohio State earlier this season and won the series: The Wolverines run-ruled the Buckeyes in Game 2 but got run-ruled in the third, proving that the series could go either way. Michigan is higher than Ohio State in batting in the Big Ten, with a .309 team average against the conference compared to .287, but the reverse is true in terms of pitching. With Lauren Putz continuing with her power at the plate and Jenissa Conway returning to form, the Wolverines’ offense could prove troubling for the Buckeyes. The evenly-matched game will come down to who can find their footing best to start the tournament, and I think that will be Michigan, vaulted by its first series sweep to finish the regular season.
But then the Wolverines would face Nebraska, the No. 1 seed and the team I’m picking to win the tournament. Michigan got swept by the Cornhuskers earlier in the season; I would be surprised if the Wolverines manage to win this time against a potent Nebraska defense, especially when Michigan isn’t swinging the bats as well as it was earlier in the season. The Cornhuskers are the No. 1 seed and ranked second in the nation for a reason — I think the Wolverines will win their first game but fall to the Cornhuskers in the second round.
Who wins the Big Ten Tournament?
Bodiford: Nebraska
While Nebraska is seeded No. 1 in the Big Ten and ranked No. 2 nationally, that is not the only thing the team has going for it. The Cornhuskers possess Jordy Frahm, the best pitcher in the conference, touting an ERA of 1.26 and 184 strikeouts. Not only does Nebraska boast one elite pitcher, but it has another powerhouse in Alexis Jensen, who has an ERA of 2.72 with 185 strikeouts. Altogether, the Cornhuskers tally an average ERA of 2.03, significantly above the next best pitching staff of Indiana which record an average ERA of 3.18. On the offensive side of the game, Nebraska ranks third in the Big Ten with six of its starting players batting above 3.40 and with the entire lineup batting over 3.00.
The only loss that the Cornhuskers have tallied throughout conference play was a 6-5 nailbiter to UCLA, the No. 3 seed in the Big Ten. The Bruins possess the most powerful offense in the conference, but Nebraska has already shown that it can put away the explosive team, taking wins by at least three runs in the other two games of the series. Despite UCLA’s extreme offense, I believe that the Cornhuskers will be able to lean on their elite arms to stifle the Bruins once more. Additionally, Nebraska has already defeated some of the top teams in the nation pre-season. Having defeated No. 4 Texas Tech, No. 6 Texas, and No. 7 Tennessee, the Cornhuskers know what it is like to take on, and defeat premier teams, another reason why I believe they will overpower and stifle the Bruins.
Huang: UCLA
Though Jordy Frahm is undoubtedly the best player in the tournament, UCLA’s offensive firepower is unprecedented. The Bruins have launched 173 home runs in the regular season, 13 more than the previous national record. Boasting an arsenal of the deadliest hitters in the nation, UCLA presents a nightmare matchup for any pitching staff. And while Nebraska’s pitchers stifled the Bruins earlier in the season, the UCLA bats have only gotten better since their regular season matchup. There’s a reason why Jordan Woolery and Megan Grant have been selected as USA Softball Collegiate Player of the Year finalists — and it’s the reason why I think they’ll overwhelm every opponent they face.
Kodali: UCLA
It’s hard to bet against the No. 2 ranked team in the nation, but Nebraska is far from infallible. The Cornhuskers have only one hitter who ranks in the top 30 in OPS in the Big Ten — the all-world two-way player Jordy Frahm. And though Nebraska’s pitching is exceptional, UCLA’s offense is inevitable. Its 173 regular season home runs have smashed the previous regular season record set by the 2021 Oklahoma softball team. Record smashing sluggers Megan Grant and Jordan Woolery could be enough to win the tournament by themselves, but if not, Rylee Slimp, Aleena Garcia, Alexis Ramirez, Kaniya Bragg, and Bri Alejandre should suffice. The Bruins will avenge their regular season slip to Nebraska.
Zann: Nebraska
Nebraska lost only one game in the Big Ten this season, a 6-5 loss to UCLA in a series that the Cornhuskers won. The Bruins have the best offense in the Big Ten: They’re tied for first in home runs in the nation and broke the national homer record. However, Nebraska held them to 11 runs through three games. If the Cornhuskers can keep up this performance, especially in a potential final against UCLA, there’s no doubt they should win the tournament.
Nebraska also won the Big Ten outright, although its schedule was on the easier side — six of its eight series were against teams that finished in the lower half of the conference. But its 18-game win streak gives it momentum heading into the postseason, and its ace pitcher Jordy Frahm doesn’t hurt either. The Cornhuskers — currently ranked No. 2 in the nation — also had multiple wins against ranked teams early in the season, twice against the No. 1 teams at the time. It’s definitely not a sure pick, but I think the Cornhuskers take the Big Ten Tournament.
Bold predictions?
Bodiford: Indiana run-rules Washington in quarterfinals and falls by only one run to Nebraska
Huang: UCLA run-rules Oregon in semifinals
Kodali: Both Michigan and Ohio State score double digit runs first round
Zann: Northwestern loses to Nebraska in championship game
Tournament MVP?
Bodiford: Jordy Frahm
Huang: Jordan Woolery
Kodali: Megan Grant
Zann: Jordy Frahm
