It still doesn’t feel normal, but the No. 15 Michigan football team will make its now-annual trip to the West Coast this week as a part of the regular Big Ten schedule. The Wolverines left Thursday and will finish the practice week at the Los Angeles Chargers’ facility tomorrow. Then, it’s time for the third ever matchup between Michigan and Southern California.
It’s not a do-or-die game for either team per se, but for the loser, every game hereafter becomes do or die. At 4-1, a playoff berth is realistic for both the Wolverines and the Trojans if they can reach the 10-2 mark. This game is a midseason inflection point after which each team will know if it has room for error or its back against the wall moving forward.
Or, both teams can fall flat for the remainder of conference play and the game can lose its meaning in retrospect. But this isn’t last year, even if the stakes rhyme.
It’s a new year with new teams in a new time zone. In brief, there’s plenty to watch for. Here’s three themes to start:
Can Michigan’s young defensive backs hold their own?
USC coach Lincoln Riley has been calling offensive plays at this level for 15 years now. One thing hasn’t changed: His teams can move the ball through the air. Through five games this season, the Trojans have thrown for an average of 338 yards per game.
“They’re talented everywhere on the field, especially on the offensive end,” Michigan sophomore defensive back Mason Curtis said Tuesday. “Got a good quarterback, good receivers, so they’re just honing in on eyes, details, communication on the field.”
It starts with USC quarterback Jayden Maiava, who has been extremely efficient this season. He’s completing over 70% of his passes and has thrown 11 touchdowns to only one interception.
Out wide, Makai Lemon is dynamic. Lemon leads the team with 589 yards and has an argument to be the nation’s top receiver.
He’ll line up against Wolverines junior defensive back Jyaire Hill. At least, Michigan will do its best to keep it that way. Hill has stepped up as the Wolverines’ top corner this season. He’s improved upon many of his weaknesses, especially in man coverage against double moves. But he’s no Will Johnson — who had a pick six against the Trojans last year — and will be easier for Riley to scheme against.
Even if Lemon beats Hill consistently, USC will likely try to operate out of different formations and utilize pre-snap motions to get Lemon different matchups. Michigan has quite a few young defensive backs that haven’t tried to defend a player of Lemon’s caliber.
Freshmen Jayden Sanders, Shamari Earls and Elijah Dotson have all made their way onto the field for meaningful snaps. Although senior Zeke Berry and graduate Rod Moore’s returns make a world of difference, the freshmen are still likely to take the field.
With just a couple blown coverages, Lemon can make himself the game’s decider. He’s a threat unlike any the Wolverines have seen this season and one unlike anything Sanders, Earls and Dotson have ever lined up against. Michigan will need them to hold their own.
Can both teams continue to be turnover averse?
Wolverines Freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood, while not slinging it at the volume Maiava is, has also only thrown a single interception this year. And that was in garbage time against Central Michigan.
Both teams boast great turnover margins overall with the Trojans at 5-9 and the Wolverines at 3-9. Winning the turnover battle will be critical come Saturday.
In last year’s game, Johnson’s aforementioned 42-yard pick six put Michigan up 20-10 over USC in the third quarter, giving much needed support to an offense that threw for just 32 yards. But even regular turnovers will make a huge difference when each team is giving up so few this season.
Based solely on the numbers, it’s more likely a ball is poked free than snagged out of the air. The Wolverines have fumbled five times despite losing it just twice. USC has lost four fumbles, including one on the first drive of its last game. Ultimately a 34-32 loss for the Trojans, Illinois capitalized on the opening takeaway to take an early 7-0 lead.
Interceptions aren’t inconceivable, though. Michigan has a healthy secondary even if the young guys will still rotate in. Last week, Moore was welcomed back to Michigan Stadium with his first interception in two years. The guys around him are just as eager.
Can Justice Haynes do something similar to Kalel Mullings?
Down three with the game on the line, former Wolverines running back Kalel Mullings was dead to rights. Then he spun out of two tackles and broke off for 63 yards to put Michigan in the red zone, where he’d score the game-winner a few plays later.
This season, explosive runs like that have been commonplace for junior running back Justice Haynes. They’re largely why his coaches and teammates think he belongs in the Heisman Trophy conversation. But every great winner needs to have those kinds of moments in the biggest games.
This isn’t a ranked matchup, but Michigan is the underdog in a game against two national brands. It’s the Wolverines’ most important game until Ohio State comes to town. If Haynes has a game-winner like Mullings did, it will be a moment that sticks in peoples’ heads. It will vault him into contention to win Heisman.
USC’s defense is stout at defending the run game, allowing just over 100 yards per game. That’ll make another 100-yard performance all the more impressive. But both to win this game and to win individual awards at the season’s end, Haynes will have to have memorable plays.
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In Ann Arbor last year, Michigan won the ranked-matchup with USC. At the time, it appeared to set the Wolverines up to make a run and compete for a playoff spot.
The stakes are quite similar this year, but the stage moves to the LA Memorial Coliseum. Big Ten teams went just 6-22 when traveling to face the four former PAC-12 teams last season. Michigan was part of that 22, falling to Washington in Seattle.
Sooner or later, the Wolverines will have to feel comfortable traveling three time zones. It’s the new normal, after all.
